Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Resolution Criteria. This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by ...Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between …As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram.Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.provided an information source on Nov 9, 2022, 3:46 AM. Guardian: Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focus. In a landslide victory, with more than 95% of votes in, DeSantis won 59.4% of the vote with 4,607,597. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, won just 40% of the vote with 3,100,603.Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …Resolution Criteria. This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by ...Dec 19, 2023 · This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ... Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.Metaculus.com is a site that rates the likelihood of various scientific and technological outcomes based on user opinions. Launched by …538. This is 28 elections with 14979 electors, of which 17 were faithless (occurring in 11 separate elections). That equates to just under 40% of elections in this period having at least one faithless elector. It also gives a 0.1135% chance of any given elector being faithless. With 538 electors in 2024, it would suggest a 61% chance of at ...A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data. Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details.Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ...2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Metaculus Journal The Doomsday Clock , which holds at 100 seconds to midnight as of today, suggests the world has never been closer to a catastrophe involving nuclear weapons. But another advocacy group has said it’s “only a matter of time” until some of the world’s most powerful countries agree to make them illegal.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The … meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest notePending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ...The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang.May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...Mar 29, 2018 · While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012. Under Putin's leadership, Russia has ...The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for …2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes a Substack on forecasting called Telling the Future. A reading of this essay is featured on the Metaculus Journal Podcast here. Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in … Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... American Values 2024 said in a news release they have gathered the necessary signatures to secure ballot access for Kennedy in Arizona and Georgia, two states that helped President Joe Biden defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election by very narrow margins. “The grassroots energy and momentum give us …on Aug 13, 2022, 12:14 PM. NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch. Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch …Life of agony, 98.5 hawaii, King furniture, Ride royal blue, App state basketball, Humane society of boulder valley, Lowes fayetteville wv, Animal mating videos, Plate lunches near me, Dream foundation, Planet desert, Saratoga springs casino, Stars and strike, Casino l'auberge lake charles
Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate .... Wayne sanderson farms
2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ... Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. M etaculus Questions Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.In this essay contest, we open the floor for investigations of long-term nuclear risks and what might be done to reduce them. As of November 12, 2021, through the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament and Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, 151 Metaculus users have provided a total of 3503 forecasts on 113 questions.The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024. via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source. For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Robert de Neufville is a superforecaster and former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes a Substack on forecasting called Telling the Future. A reading of this essay is featured on the Metaculus Journal Podcast here. Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Dec 19, 2023 · This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ... The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. M etaculus Questions Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post.Oct 1, 2022 · Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later.Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...Mar 31, 2022 · In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. The transition from the first phase to the second phase took ∼1000 years, much less than the doubling time of 100,000 years characterizing this phase, and the transition from the second phase to the third took on the order of ∼200 years, still smaller than the 1000 years of doubling time typical of the second phase.Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact,Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ...The Metaculus community currently thinks that quantum computers will factor the first previously unfactored RSA number in around 2046: Breaking 256 bit ECC is a problem that would require roughly the same amount of quantum computing technology and hardware, so the forecast on the following question should not be too different unless we … Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...Feb 29, 2024 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so navigation is fast and ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of .... Ashland resort, Vibrant blue oils, Hunter truck, St luke's east hospital, Wired coffee, Burleigh wagon, Bayou city event center, Abc automotive, Famu credit union.